To flip Pennsylvania, Trump has to start in Bucks and expand in places like Northampton. Much of the rest of the state is rural and ruby red Republican. Republicans Ulysses S. Grant and William Howard Taft won a majority of the presidential popular vote but lost a handful of seats in House, too. Or even better, if you have children, get them to do it for you. North Carolina (15 electoral votes) - Toss-up. For Trump to win, he needs to flip a place like Racine, which went for Obama narrowly. What Can We Learn from Bellwether Counties in Swing States? You can subscribe to our print edition, ad-free app or electronic newspaper replica here. Moving forward, it is entirely possible that there will be no single county that consistently indicates the results of a national election. Allegheny (Pittsburgh) is also key for Democrats. Not anymore. The county is home to a huge diaspora of health care workers affiliated with the Cleveland Clinic, and other players in the areas huge medical cluster. Salt Lake City elected its first lesbian mayor this year, and Obama actually won Salt Lake County by a few hundred votes in 2008. To do so, the popular vote winner of each county for every presidential election from 1980 through 2016 was tabulated and mapped, yielding 19 true bellwether counties for the period. If Trump wants to win the state, he has to start with a win here and make up the rest of the margin elsewhere. Her running mate Tim Kaine the former Richmond mayor and Virginia governor could make a difference here, Latest voter registration totals: 230,236No party registration, Loudoun County flipped from red to blue in 2008, when Barack Obama won it and held it in 2012. Below are 10 bellwether counties that could give signs as to how the electorate feels this cycle and in future races. a suburban Philadelphia county that went for Hillary Clinton in 2016 with 52.6% of the vote, and that . In economics, a 'bellwether' is a leading indicator of an economic trend. How many of these 150 switch counties voted Democrat in 2020? Their finger was so tightly on the pulse of America that they not only picked the winner each time, but managed to accurately flip parties four times in that period. What science tells us about the afterlife. PDF An Inquiry of Bellwether Counties in US Presidential Elections, 1980-2016 Also key is Volusia, which represents a large county that has been close to the overall vote. What, if anything, did we miss? With each new section we relaxed the constraint, to include the most friendly Democrat voting counties in the country (based on the 2008 election). 2016 primary winners: Sanders, Trump2012: Romney 52%, Obama 47%, Latest voter registration totals:Undeclared: 82,008Republicans: 80,068Democrats: 63,257. Obeng (2016) was similarly skeptical, noting that bellwethers run the risk of producing models that explain what has happened but cannot predict the future. PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY EMILY SCHERER / GETTY IMAGES. Trump appears likely to lose many moderate Republicans here but his message is also expected to appeal to white working class voters in Lower Bucks County, closer to the city. The county also features a diverse array of industries, from dairy farms and small manufacturers to major health-care companies. These counties were geographically clustered in the Midwest and in the Northeast. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 53%-46% - 2008: McCain 52%-47%. Have information that relates to fraud in this election? That Trump did so well in the remaining 19 bellwether counties in 2020 should come as no surprise, then. "Mathematically impossible," wrote a user who shared it on Facebook. This county voted with the popular vote each time. In this section we will introduce a new concept: The swing county. Combined, they had more than twice the votes of Denver proper and 30 percent of all the votes statewide. It far surpasses any statistical explanation, because at the end of the day we are dealing with real people, with real personalities, concerns and aspirations, which happen to align perfectly with the whole American population. In Valencia County, New Mexico, which had correctly predicted the winner of every presidential election since 1952, Mr Trump won by 10 points; in Indiana's Vigo County, which backed every president bar two since 1888, he prevailed by 15 points. These former bellwether counties are much whiter and less college-educated than the country as a whole. In at least three of the past four elections, county differed . Free and open-source. Ottawa County in Ohio has been on target every four years since 1964, and Bexar County in . That means, watch Bucks and Northampton counties. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 51%-49% - 2008: Obama 50%-49%. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 480,926Republicans, 323,870Unaffiliated: 229,298Others: 65,281. If you find this article meaningful and convincing, please share it far and wide. Racine County, which features a significant Hispanic and African American population, is the only competitive county bordering Milwaukee Ozaukee, Waukesha and Washington counties are reliably Republican. Ask our loving God to act in dealing with corruption, restoring justice and integrity in the nation, and prayerfully consider who you should share information with and what your role might be. The Atlantic wonders why we're still arguing about masks. There are more than 3,000 counties in the United States, but in presidential elections they are not all created equal. Suggest an improvement, report an issue, This one of 99 counties made up 16 percent of Obama's total vote in 2012. Nobody forgot about politics.". How many of these counties voted less for the Republican party in 2020? The 10 Bellwether Counties That Show How Trump Is in Serious Trouble Almost a quarter of Obama's votes in 2012 came out of Wayne County (Detroit), which is 41 percent black. In the past, says Mrs Day-Baker, the presence of conservative Democrats and split-ticket voting - choosing a Republican nominee for president but Democratic Party candidates as local representatives, or vice versa - were both commonplace. Follow the Data Identify Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis . BBC Reality Check breaks down the bill for the world's most expensive election, Arriving at a voting station to observe as a poll challenger on 4 November last, she sat down next to two people she didn't know. A swing county is a county that voted correctly for the winning party at one election and then voted for the other winning party at the next election. There were 1.3 million voters, or a quarter of all the state's voters, in just eight counties in that stretch. The county narrowly voted for Bush in 2000 but has gone Democratic in the three presidential elections since then, though never by more than 52 percent. If Clinton's winning there, it means she's hitting marks with young voters. The magnitude of the gap (or difference) is an indicator of the strength of the change in sentiment. But after twice voting for George W. Bush, it has since moved well to the left. In 2018, Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, carried it by 11 points . In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. It's true that both Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2020 won in Florida, Ohio and Iowa. Like Jefferson (but slightly more populous), Arapahoe was once a GOP stronghold that voted for Obama twice. Tampa's Hillsborough County is a top bellwether -- since 1960, no candidate has won Florida . These counties could play an . The divisions were everywhere. It is the only county to go twice for Bush and twice for Obama. Arapahoe County. Trump, who needs to pick off one Democratic leaning state, added a rally here Sunday night. Kerry Sheridan/AFP/Getty Images MORE PROOF OF FRAUD: 16 of 17 Bellwether Counties Went for Trump HAS There are 25 counties with a Democrat percentage vote over 60%. We'll get an early indicator of Clinton's black support given this is a 7 p.m. poll close state and a place where 1-in-5 voters were black and went 93 percent for Obama. ), Fact check: Biden won the most total votes and the fewest total counties of any president-elect. The website FiveThirtyEight pointed out in 2021 that, in the 2016 election Trump won, opponent Hillary Clinton carried 16 of the 35 counties that had gone for the winner in every election from. Other counties to watch: Clark County (Las Vegas, Henderson), Democrats have to drive up big margins in Las Vegas, something they have lots of experience doing. On a cold, wind-swept November afternoon two weeks after election day, the crowds that thronged the beaches of Ottawa County all summer long are but a distant memory. This year with Mr Trump winning the county handily, not only did Vigo County Republicans keep their seats, a "red tide" similar to what transpired in Ottawa and Valencia counties saw Republican members take positions such as county judge, treasurer, clerk and recorder. The most populous county in the state and home to Manchester and Nashua, Hillsborough twice voted narrowly for Bush and twice for Obama. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 50%-49% - 2008: Obama 51%-48%. there are signs that the progress he made there in 2016 winning the county by about 1.5 percentage points after Obama carried it by 16 points . Trump won 18 of the 19. That Trump did so well in the remaining 19 bellwether counties in 2020 should come as no surprise, then. When is Eurovision and how do you get tickets? If they are tipping to Clinton, it's over. As the country's demographics shift and the rural-urban divide becomes more pronounced, the chances appear slim. That'sanother reason results of the contests might not have lined up. The Most Important Counties to Watch on Election Night. Third, it lists the fractionof bellwether counties each candidate won Obama at 18 of 19, Trump at 18 of 19 and Biden at one of 19. View our How You Can Help page, or contribute via If you take a coin and flip it 22 times. In the 1990s, he says, Democrats ran for many local county positions unopposed. Again, youll appreciate the results when you dig some of them up yourself. Of the 19 counties that had a perfect record between 1980 and 2016, all but one voted to reelect President Donald Trump, who lost to Joe Biden in both the national popular vote and in nearly. After Detroits Wayne County, Oakland County is the most-populous in the state. Seriously. The question is just how big of a margin she can run up here -- where roughly two-thirds of the states presidential votes were cast in 2012 -- to offset Trumps victories across much of the rest of the state. Have you looked at the results of these counties? The website will remain online for the foreseeable future, but may not get any significant updates until the situation changes. It went Republican in 2012; if Clinton is doing better or vice-versa there compared to Obama, it could be a sign of things to come. Weeks after Election Day, there have still been no discoveriesof widespread voter fraud. 'Forest defenders' begin week of action to block Atlanta police training center, Frogxit: Harry and Meghan get what they asked for, More Iranian schoolgirls fall ill, protests erupt, Russell Brand was challenged to give examples of MSNBC pushing misinformation (that was a BAD idea), Secretary of the Army Guarantees a Lot of Young Soldiers Will Die but Has the Right Thoughts and Feelings, California - Do Not Sell My Personal Information. It went for Romney in 2012 (when he won it), but Obama in 2008 (when the Democrat did). Enter Donald Trump. 2023 ABC News Internet Ventures. If there's a place to watch in the state that could tip it toward Clinton is college towns like Ogden in Weber County, home to Weber State. Were doing a lot of adult retraining, he said. Here are the top 30 sorted by the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote in 2008, thats the DPV 08 column: Find out at politico.com/2020-election/results. (The highest value being 66.1%), When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there are 25 counties that have a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. They're just facts about the vote. Where Did All The Bellwether Counties Go? Republican county chairman Michael Barnett said hed celebrate if Trump could do better than Romneys 41 percent total here in 2012. The most impressive of those was Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in every presidential election from 1952 to 2016. The following 111 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in two elections since 1980: Allamakee County, Iowa, in 1992 and 2020 [3] Alamosa County, Colorado, in 2016 and 2020 [3] Baldwin County, Georgia, in 1980 and 2016 [3] Benzie County, Michigan, in 2012 and 2020 [3] Blue Earth County, Minnesota, in 1988 and 2004 [3] 9 Battleground State Counties That Trump and Biden Need to Win - The . Really stop reading. Published Nov. 8, 2016 at 5:30 a.m. In communities . The highest percentage being 66.1%. In 2018, Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, carried it by 11 points. No county more closely reflected Obama's wins in 2008 and 2012 than Monroe, home to Key West and the rest of the Keys. A bellwether county that includes Canton, its part of a heavily blue collar region where Trumps message could resonate. . From 1980 through 2016, 19 of the nation's more than 3,000 counties voted for the eventual president in every election. Ultimately, they are simply 19 counties and this time, 18 of them voted for the candidate who lost the election. For a county to be considered a bellwether it would have to vote for the winning party at each of the following elections: That is 4 switches in 8 election cycles! From his tweet: From 1984 through 2016, spanning presidential elections, seventeen US counties in several states ad voted for the winning presidential candidate in an astounding 148 of 153 times including 100% five times for five different presidents: Advertisement - story continues below 1984 Reagan 1996 Clinton 2000 Bush 2012 Obama 2016 Trump Increased political polarization is another reason why fewer counties are consistently indicative of presidential results in recent years. We relaxed the constraint by introducing the concept of a swing county, i.e. i.e. That includes10elections, includingObama in 2008 and Trump in 2016. Did they narrowly miss out on voting for the Democrat party in 2020? The statistics also are not indicative of electoral fraud. That's 14 in a row. Watauga has gone for the winner statewide in each of the last three presidential elections and three Senate races since 2008. Still, the state's worth watching. Obama won Monroe County 49.6-49.1 in 2012 and 52-47 in 2008. 108,000 people. It is also not as educated: Just 22 percent of adults 25 or older have a bachelors degree or higher, which is substantially lower than the 32 percent who have a college degree nationwide. The storied home of Reagan Democrats and the third most-populous county in the state, southeastern Michigans Macomb last went Republican at the presidential level in 2004. Jeff. This was George W. Bush territory in 2000 and 2004, but Obama brought it back into the Democratic fold in his two elections. But there was only one county Clallam, Washington which voted Democrat. Utah (6 electoral votes) - Likely Republican. More: Fact check: What's true and what's false about the 2020 election. Ottawa County accurately predicted every president since 1964 until 2020, The Ottawa County commissioner says people are happy with Trump's accomplishments, Sunrise at East Harbor State Park, Ottawa County, Ohio, Minority voters who changed their minds about Trump, Chris Rock jokes about Oscars slap in Netflix show, Harry: I always felt different to rest of family, Everything Everywhere wins big ahead of Oscars, PM to end asylum claims from small boat arrivals, Street fighting in Bakhmut but Russia not in control, US-made cheese can be called 'gruyere' - court. Wood County is a decent bellwether of the state: Mr. Trump carried it by eight points in 2016, matching his statewide margin. The same can be said for the three states listed in the meme. A bellwether is a leader or an indicator of trends.. Neither Clinton nor Trump won here during the caucuses in this Mississippi River county. (Sorry, not sorry.) A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. Will Democrats Rally Behind President Biden In 2024? Combinedwith general population growth, and this election had 27 million more participants. Lets introduce a new concept: the quality of prediction. As with Valencia County, in the past bipartisanship wasn't unusual in Indiana's Vigo County. Some of the same messages that are going to work in Northeastern Ohio are maybe not going to work as well down here, said county GOP Chairman Alex Triantafilou. Hillary Clinton speaks during a rally at the Abraham Lincoln High School on Jan. 31 in Des Moines, Iowa. Instead, you can Find the latest updates on our Telegram channel which has more recent updates. Trump County, USA - POLITICO Magazine But demographic change appears to have tipped the county slightly more in Democrats' direction. Out of 3,141 counties, there were 22 counties that had successfully voted for the winning candidate in each and every election between 1988 and 2016 (included). (Biden, for example, won over 70%of the vote in Los Angeles County. Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton. (You can make up your own mind on what the trends mean.). We already claimed that bellwether counties are a lot more than statistical curiosities, but lets assume for the time being that normal rules of probability apply. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 54%-44%. Also key is Larimer (Fort Collins). "I said: 'I'm the chair of the Democratic Party,' and the gentleman looked at me and said: 'Oh, the enemy.'". That report was issued on Nov. 12. Key bellwether counties in the swingiest states appeared during the 2016 and 2018 cycles that can help serve as a guide for 2020. "There are more and more places in this country that are consistently red or blue, so there are fewer and fewer counties that swing back and forth from election to election," he said. It came close to reflecting the statewide vote in 2012. If it is not demographically representative counties or politically competitive counties which are the bellwethers, why then do we find bellwethers? The idea being these counties are good at sensing a change of sentiment and will happily vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them. Vigo County, Indiana, is a serious bellwether county. Texas likely isn't going Democratic, so we aren't including this in one of our 13 counties since it's less likely to decide the outcome of the presidential election. Lets find a coin, and flip it. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 51%-48% - 2008: Obama 52%-47%. An Inquiry of Bellwether Counties in US Presidential Elections, 1980-2016 Daniel Zimny-Schmitt1, Michael C. Harris2 1. They have a rare and unique property of having a perfect demographic mix that allows them to vote for either party based on the merits of each election, and always get it right. What are your thoughts on this article? As weve seen in the past two presidential elections, bellwether streaks can be suddenly ended thanks to Americas continually evolving political and demographic trends. An Inquiry of Bellwether Counties in US Presidential Elections - SSRN From 1980 through 2016, there were 19 counties that consistently voted for the eventual president. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 55%-43%. Other counties to watch: Nowhere is more important than Polk (Des Moines). Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 258,050Unaffiliated: 228,638Republicans: 185,694Libertarian: 3,711. To get an idea as to whether Clinton could win it, watch Tarrant County. (Independent parties will reduce the winning margin between the two major parties.) But county wins don't correlate with the popular vote, in part due to tremendousvariancein population size and density by county. We highlighted the counties that voted the highest for the Democrat party in 2008 as it is a clear indicator of their propensity to vote for the Democrat party. Watch this populous county, home to Manchester. (See the DPV 08 column in the image below.) Or itcould have almost 10.1 million residents, like Los Angeles County. 2016 primary winners: Clinton, Trump2012: Obama 50%, Romney 49%, Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 192,278Republicans: 182,364Unaffiliated: 40,047Other: 29,484. It all starts in Salt Lake, a place more liberal than you might think. Republicans are bullish that the suburban county will stay in their column this time, in part because of frustration with Washington. In the western mountains on the border with Tennessee, it's home to Boone, which includes Appalachian State. Oct. 28, 2021, 11:05 AM PDT. Not a bad streak. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 369,734Republicans: 247,029No Party Affiliation: 218,642Others: 30,414. Of these 35 counties, 10 of them consistently voted over 50% for the winning candidate since the year 2000. Profiled by BBC News weeks before the 2020 election, locals said voters' political identities weren't always defined in strict party terms and that people would regularly pivot between parties from one election cycle to the next. 2023 BBC. The pattern has become clear between the last two presidential elections and governor's race early results from rural counties show Republicans up, but Northern Virginia counties, especially Fairfax, have more than made up the difference. Here is a look at the bellwether counties for the 2020 presidential race. Were not going to just give you the answer, since the significance of the result might be lost on you. Arguably, it was 2016 and not 2020 when bellwether counties first showed signs of falling by the wayside, given their dramatic swing to the right in that election. We looked at the most recent swing counties and determined how many of the strongest Democrat voting counties in 2008, swung back to the Democrat party in 2020. Florida (29 electoral votes) - Toss-up. A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. Hillsborough made up more than half that margin Obama won the county by 36,000 votes. While Trump won every county in the state in the GOP primary, he posted his best result in Luzerne 77 percent. Key Counties: The race here is not binary, so watching the margins in the biggest counties will be important. These counties turned out to vote strongly for the Democrat party in 2008, so they are the most likely to swing back to the Democrat party in 2020. It's New Hampshire's biggest county by population. It did go for John Kerry in 2004, though, when Bush won the state, so let's see if Monroe retains its bellwether status beyond two elections or if it was just a cheeseburger in paradise. In other words, how strongly do they swing to the winning party? In 2008, Obama carried this county outside Detroit by 9 percentage points but that winning margin was cut in half in 2012 with Michigan native Mitt Romney leading the GOP ticket. Copyright 2023 HotAir.com/Salem Media. What results did you discover? It very closely mirrors the rest of the state demographically (with a slightly higher Asian population), but it is far more educated. Some say it's not only the polarisation induced by the outgoing president that's to blame for traditional bellwether counties' failure to correctly predict the election. One of the highest income counties in the nation and a longtime GOP Midwestern stronghold, in recent years the suburban behemoth has begun trending toward Democrats -- not even Mitt Romney, who grew up here, could win it. This website merely reports on substantial allegations made by well-known public figures, elected officials, members of congress, and their legal teams, and will correct errors when notified. With a total turnout of 78%, Donald Trump won Ottawa County by a margin of 61% to 38%, improving his 2016 return by four points. Demographically, the bellwether counties tended to be whiter, older, less . "We had to quietly move our parade," she says. "It wasn't part of his strategy.". It is important to realise these counties have no allegiances whatsoever and will happily vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them based on merit. used to vote more like the country as a whole, huge gains with white voters without a college degree, just 303 counties were decided by single-digit margins in 2016, How The Federal Reserve Is The Shadow Branch Of The Government, Why Original Predictions About The War In Ukraine Were So Off. And like so many electoral trends, demographics play a major role in explaining why these once-bellwether counties finally missed the mark in 2020. [How Much Did COVID-19 Affect The 2020 Election?]. It won't be enough for Trump; he also needs to likely win by more than Romney did in Brown (Green Bay) and drive up turn out in Waukesha, one of the reddest and most populous counties in the state. Suburban Denvers Arapahoe and Jefferson counties have moved in tandem for the past four elections. ET. But in 2020, 18 of these 19 bellwether counties voted for former President Donald Trump. Whether or not these less diverse, industry-dependent communities can regain their bellwether status in four years' time remains to be seen. It abuts Clevelands Cuyahoga County to the east and went narrowly to Mitt Romney in 2012. Sumter County, . These counties' national bellwether status might not ring true in 2016, though, because Illinois is one of Obama's home states. Sitting at the same Kozy Corners diner table that president Barack Obama ate from when on his own re-election campaign in July 2012, Mr Brikmanis, a lawyer, believes local Democrats' failure to get votes is also linked to the broader economic decline being experienced by rural and rust belt communities across the Midwest. That is 19 counties still standing after 10 elections! She blames much of that on the "Trump effect" - Mr Trump's ability to engage people in politics by appealing to their fears and discontents.
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